Conference tournament weekend PWR outlook

The following conclusions are based on an exhaustive search of all possible remaining outcomes (about 3,145,728 of them). Any percentages given are not weighted by likelihood or team strength, but instead represent the share of remaining scenarios in which that outcome occurs.

The following teams will make the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens this weekend:

  • #1 Minnesota
  • #2 Boston College (not playing)
  • #3 Union
  • #4 Ferris State
  • #5 Wisconsin
  • #6 Quinnipiac
  • #7 Mass.-Lowell
  • #8 Notre Dame

The following teams are extremely likely to make the NCAA tournament, but there are some outlier scenarios that could knock them out:

  • #9 Providence (in for sure with a win, selected in 97% of 0 win scenarios)
  • #10 St. Cloud St (not playing, selected in over 99% of scenarios)

The following teams have some chance of making it regardless of outcome:

  • #11 Michigan (selected in 21% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 96% of scenarios with 1 win)
  • #12 Minnesota State (selected in 6% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 54% of scenarios with 1 win)
  • #14 Vermont (not playing, selected in 69% of scenarios)
  • #15 Colgate (selected in 2% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 77% of scenarios with 1 win)
  • #16 Cornell (selected in <1% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 85% of scenarios with 1 win)
  • #18 Northeastern (not playing, selected in 8% of scenarios)

The following teams need a win to make it:

  • #13 North Dakota (out with two losses, selected in 41% of scenarios with 1 win). UND is an outlier from the group above because the NCHC has a consolation game, so no wins actually means two losses instead of one.

The following teams need to win the conference tournament to get a bid:

  • #17 New Hampshire
  • #19 Western Michigan
  • #21 Ohio State
  • #24 Bowling Green
  • #25 Alaska Anchorage
  • #26 Denver
  • #31 Mercyhurst
  • #32 Miami
  • #37 Michigan State
  • #47 Robert Morris
  • #48 Canisius
  • #49 Niagara
  • #52 Penn State

Note – as of this writing there seems to be some discrepancy between the USCHO PWR calculator and CHN PWR calculator that I’m trying to work out. I feel pretty good about these numbers so wanted to get them out there rather than wait, but there’s a possibility of small revisions if new information comes to light.

Resources