KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament

Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking scheme, KRACH, can be used to predict game outcomes. Here’s what KRACH thinks of the NCAA tournament field.

  • KRACH thinks Minnesota has the easiest path to the Frozen Four, with a better than 60% of emerging from its regional.
  • SCSU vs Notre Dame is the most balanced game, with KRACH given about a 1% edge to St Cloud St.
  • Wisconsin is the weakest 1-seed facing the 2nd toughest 4 seed, resulting in only a 56-44 advantage over North Dakota.
  • The Midwest is also the most balanced regional overall, with each team having between a 20-30% chance of advancing.
KRACH West Game 1 Game 2 (Region Champ) Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal) Game 4 (National Champ)
359.406 1. Minnesota 93.19% 61.16% 40.70% 23.41%
26.2834 4. Robert Morris 6.81% 0.84% 0.11% 0.01%
190.458 2. St Cloud St 50.60% 19.36% 9.95% 4.20%
185.96 3. Notre Dame 49.40% 18.65% 9.47% 3.94%
Midwest
198.286 1. Wisconsin 56.35% 29.51% 12.39% 5.35%
153.57 4. North Dakota 43.65% 20.08% 7.25% 2.70%
199.632 2. Ferris St 55.70% 29.49% 12.43% 5.38%
158.776 3. Colgate 44.30% 20.93% 7.71% 2.93%
East
352.088 1. Union 69.46% 45.44% 26.41% 15.61%
154.823 4. Vermont 30.54% 13.88% 5.35% 2.11%
197.646 2. Quinnipiac 53.26% 22.42% 9.93% 4.49%
173.439 3. Providence 46.74% 18.26% 7.52% 3.17%
Northeast
350.585 1. Boston College 76.88% 49.23% 28.98% 17.10%
105.457 4. Denver 23.12% 8.11% 2.50% 0.77%
159.696 2. Minnesota St 41.36% 15.71% 6.28% 2.52%
226.442 3. Mass.-Lowell 58.64% 26.94% 13.02% 6.32%
  • jimdahl

    In case anyone was wondering, here are the predictions for the winners for the last six years:
    2013 Yale 3%
    2012 Boston College 22% (favorite)
    2011 Minnesota-Duluth 7%
    2010 Boston College 7%
    2009 Boston University 24% (2nd favorite)
    2008 Boston College 2%

    All I can really deduce from that is it seems to be B.C.’s turn to win again :)

  • http://ndgoon.blogspot.com/ Goon’s ND Redneck

    So, you saying there’s a chance that UND “could” win?

    • jimdahl

      KRACH gives UND just under the chance it gave Yale last year (3.17%)

      • http://ndgoon.blogspot.com/ Goon’s ND Redneck

        I could see them winning that regional and moving on to the Frozen Four. Wisconsin isn’t a world beater. :)

  • discovery

    How does KRACH predict the Frozen Four today, now knowing the teams?

    • jimdahl

      The KRACH scores didn’t change much with the tournament results (I’m actually a little surprised UND didn’t move more).

      Minnesota, Union, and BC are essentially tied (380, 385, and 383, respectively). UND comes in at 177.

      So, Union-BC is 50-50. Minnesota-UND is 68-32.

      If UND advanced, it would similarly be about a 32-68 underdog.

      So, KRACH only gives UND about a 10% chance of taking it all (winning two consecutive 32% games required), while it views the other teams as equal, so about a 30% chance each of taking it all.

      Of course, KRACH is looking at strength over the whole season, whereas a lot of people would argue that UND is a very different team the second half than in some early losses.

      • jimdahl

        Correction – Minnesota, of course, stands a slightly better chance because they play North Dakota. So, it’s:
        UND 10%
        Minnesota 34%
        Union 28%
        BC 28%

        Looking over the teams’ records, it’s clear that Union has had the standout performance of the Spring while UND has also improved significantly over the Fall. I’ll run some numbers with Spring only games.